Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.749829 2.928728 3.125279 3.359760 3.635416 3.953991 4.357654
2025-03-02 2.502891 2.738314 3.013419 3.366882 3.822795 4.414206 5.287524
2025-03-09 2.343641 2.607077 2.927253 3.359838 3.957020 4.807623 6.256647
2025-03-16 2.206074 2.480689 2.823247 3.302413 3.997502 5.063403 7.127536
2025-03-23 2.141971 2.436370 2.814052 3.363237 4.207674 5.629881 8.955745
2025-03-30 2.037561 2.330815 2.712363 3.278394 4.176463 5.773015 10.007961
2025-04-06 1.943546 2.232262 2.611711 3.182893 4.110600 5.830886 10.923399
2025-04-13 1.872030 2.159020 2.540134 3.122622 4.092636 5.977759 12.377909
2025-04-20 1.843565 2.141046 2.543119 3.174076 4.272903 6.608026 17.571560
2025-04-27 1.834861 2.148611 2.581752 3.283979 4.579867 7.709056 39.805021
2025-05-04 1.797537 2.114454 2.557125 3.288189 4.684338 8.348488 200.407515
2025-05-11 1.762742 2.081978 2.532645 3.289687 4.783253 9.052823 NaN
2025-05-18 1.705689 2.017639 2.459766 3.207244 4.700529 9.120464 NaN
2025-05-25 1.675119 1.989728 2.440527 3.216457 4.823063 10.110890 NaN
2025-06-01 1.643226 1.958427 2.414120 3.210206 4.909675 11.090020 NaN
2025-06-08 1.603026 1.913607 2.364556 3.158075 4.878003 11.475704 NaN
2025-06-15 1.589808 1.907066 2.373730 3.213297 5.122315 13.965006 NaN
2025-06-22 1.548681 1.858405 2.314431 3.136238 5.011837 13.841407 NaN
2025-06-29 1.507392 1.808484 2.251554 3.049248 4.865942 13.339179 NaN
2025-07-06 1.474921 1.770705 2.206745 2.994210 4.799961 13.480870 NaN
2025-07-13 1.465809 1.766856 2.215495 3.041203 5.017877 16.778084 NaN
2025-07-20 1.467509 1.778887 2.250083 3.141317 5.418584 26.565971 NaN
2025-07-27 1.450300 1.762070 2.236836 3.145146 5.533115 34.975009 NaN